The term structure of interest rates has been a relatively reliable predictor of recessions in the past. The term structure in the United States has been negatively sloped since the middle of 2023.

The term structure curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term yields, has flattened. This indicates that investors are less confident that interest rates ...

The 10-year yield is often used as a stand-in for mortgage rates and also shows how investors feel about the economy’s future ...

The “experts” talk about how the U.S. Treasury Curve is currently “inverted.” What does that mean, and should it matter to lenders? The fact is, the yield curve (a graphical representation of yields, ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

(Reuters) -The U.S. Treasury yield curve, a crucial barometer of how the economy is doing, has steepened on fears of mounting public debt, President Donald Trump's attempts to exert control over the ...

The yield curve on U.S. government bonds has been upside down since the middle of 2022. The underlying circumstances of the yield curve's inversion, however, have changed dramatically in just the past ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

In my 50-plus years of running money, I’ve noticed that the biggest market moves come from factors that have gone unnoticed – and right now, there’s a doozy lurking under the table. Amid all the ...