You have probably encountered the base rate fallacy, and it probably fooled you. Part mathematical paradox and part cognitive ...

Narrative fallacy is a term introduced by Nassim Taleb [1]. It refers to our difficulty looking at a sequence of facts without connecting them in some way, either to each other or to something else we ...

What do governments, businesses and individuals have in common? They’ve all invested time and money in forecasting how long a project will take to complete. Despite the forecasting, every one of them ...